We had a tragedy in Nashville the other day. Three children and three adults were killed in a mass shooting at a Christian school. I wanted to analyze everything that went right, because this could have been so much worse.
Before I start with anything, I need to make this very clear:
EVIL WILL ALWAYS WAIT AND STRIKE WHEN THEY ARE STRONGEST AND THE TARGET IS WEAKEST. A person who is committed to accomplishing their evil task and are willing to trade their lives to complete it are nigh impossible to stop. Good can only train and be ready to react when evil strikes. Good cannot do everything they need to deter all evildoers, they can only scare off the less committed.
The shooter was a trans person, a FtoM transsexual, who, by their final texts to friends was evidently intending to suicide by cop. And that’s all I’m going to say about that. The shooter deserves to be erased by history. May their name never be mentioned or their story receive media coverage, as it can only inspire others to likewise go out in a blaze of glory.
All of the weapons purchased were done so legally. Let me make this clear: THERE WAS NO GUN CONTROL LAW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OR PROPOSED AS I WRITE THIS THAT WOULD HAVE STOPPED THE SHOOTER. The shooter was 28, had no criminal or mental health history (other than the gender dysphoria), or anything that would have disqualified her on an BATF Form 4473.
The shooter carried three weapons, a handgun, an AR-15 Pistol and a Pistol Caliber Carbine. None of these would have been banned by any current or proposed gun-control law in any state. The “AR-Pistol” is for all intents and purposes, is an AR-15, just with a short barrel and no butt stock. It's basically a "rifle caliber pistol." Because of the short barrel and only one point of contact with the operator (the handgrip), it is inaccurate beyond a few yards, and has a significantly lower muzzle velocity and bullet spin stabilization due to the short barrel. A carbine is a firearm that has a barrel length longer than a pistol, and shorter than a rifle. It is meant for shorter-ranged engagements, generally < 100 yards. Because a carbine is shorter than a rifle, it is more effective in CQB, or Close Quarter Battle, which is indoors. A pistol caliber carbine is a carbine that fires a cartridge usually meant for a handgun. The PCC in this case was a Kel-Tec Sub 2000, which is known as a “truck gun” and fires 9mm ammunition. It is designed to fold the barrel back to shrink the entire package, made to fit under or behind a vehicle seat and can be quickly deployed if needed. It can fit into a backpack, and takes only a few seconds to open and make ready. A 9mm round fired from this PCC has more hitting power, less felt recoil and accuracy at longer distances than from a pistol, due to the physics of barrel, powder, rifling and sight radius, which is germain to this discussion.
In my opinion, these were not an incorrect mix of weapons for such an assault. I DO NOT IN ANY WAY CONDONE THE ACTIONS OF THE SHOOTER. That being said, the tactical choices the shooter made for their weapon choices regarding the shooter's physical strength and physical capability was not unreasonable. The AR-pistol took care of the glass in the doors, the PCC would have been very accurate and could have been rapid-fired indoors, and the pistol would have been the last-ditch defence if it came to that.
Right now, we know that this school was the “secondary” target, as the primary target had visibly armed security personnel. So, a good guy with a gun prevented the shooting from happening there. We also know that the building was hardened enough that the shooter had to actually shoot out the glass of a door to gain entry. The gunfire alerted the school staff to immediately activate the “active shooter” alarm and call 911. The school staff and students quickly closed doors and took cover. In all of the school shootings to date, no student or staff has died when they were on the opposite side of a locked door from the shooter. It looks like the shooter spent most of the time between entry and death looking for victims. The bad news is, the six who died seems to have been caught out at that particular moment. The police were on site within 10 minutes of the 911 call. The officers who arrived first immediately got together and charged into the building. They did the opposite of Uvalde, where those cowards waited until they had maximum firepower and defensive armor, which took an hour.
It took 4 minutes from the time the police opened the door until the shooter was terminated. The police quickly and systematically swept each room they encountered, until they heard the gunfire of the shooter firing on the police in the parking lot. The police immediately converged on the sound of the gunfire and engaged without hesitation until the shooter was dead.
I don’t know why those in anguish and want to die actively choose to end innocent lives before they themselves are put down like a rabid dog. Visibly armed security, “Good guys with guns,” saved one school from this tragedy. The lack those Good Guys at the second school allowed the tragedy to happen there. The defensive measures worked. The locked doors forced the shooter into revealing themselves early and a trained response to gunfire and the lockdown alarm locked the school down within seconds. No defensive measure can stop a determined attacker. The measures can only cost the shooter time, which allows the staff and students to go to ground, and the police to arrive. Or the onsite security/staff to armor up and take the threat on. The police did their job, in accordance with the terrible lessons taught them before. Immediate, rapid, aggressive force to locate, engage and terminate the shooter.
The only assessment question left would be about the shooter’s potential actions if they had seen visibly armed security at their secondary target. Would there have been a tertiary target? Or would the shooter have just ended themselves without hurting others? I doubt that the shooter would have lived out the day anyway considering the decisions that they made.
Like I said at the beginning, Evil will strike at a time of its’ choosing, when it has all of what it thinks it will need, and it is patient enough to not attack until it perceives its’ chances of success to be the best it can be. Good can only train, practice and remain vigilant against Evil. Good will always respond, so Good must always be ready. You cannot “burglar-proof” your home or business. You can only make it “burglar-resistant,” so it’s easier to go after your neighbor’s house than to break into your house. When the Evil is willing to surrender their life to accomplish their goal, you cannot “scare them off.” The goal of the shooter was to kill innocents before being killed. They did not attack the first school because, in their assessment, the shooter would not have achieved their goal.